Knowledge is the Foundation To Success  

Increasing speculation suggests that Microsoft will overhaul its search engine strategy this week and unveil “Bing” as an all new search engine. Various sources confirm that Microsoft already registered several variations of this URL in other countries, including “bing.com.au”, “bing.co.nz” and “bing.co.uk.” Furthermore, in March, Microsoft trademarked the term Bing, which is near the time many also think they purchased the Bing.com domain, but that purchase has not yet been confirmed.

Katherine Egbert, an analyst at Jefferies & Company, says that Microsoft is planning an advertising blitz to publicize its search efforts, stating, ”Microsoft is set to spend $80 million to $100 million to advertise ‘Bing’… The budget for the ad campaign suggests that Microsoft plans to go head-to-head with the Google brand.” They need to do something if they actually intend to compete with Google, which commands about 70% of all search queries, while Microsoft currently serves less than 9% of searches, a number that has been shrinking. However, advertising alone cannot ensure success, as learned by those behind Cuil, the last new search engine to receive significant media and advertising exposure. Unfortunately for everyone involved, users decided it was not so cuil after all.

Is Yahoo on Microsoft’s Agenda? 

Several sources indicate that just last week Microsoft registered a limited liability company (LLC) in Delaware, a move that often precedes acquisitions or joint ventures. Microsoft also raised $3.75 billion in its first-ever debt offering this month. Coincidence? “The timing of the registration and recent debt raise indicate to us that it might be more likely Microsoft uses the LLC to force a partnership or to boost the amount of traffic flowing through its search engine,” wrote Katherine Egbert in a note released Tuesday.

The newly registered LLC could be the precursor to a Yahoo! deal. Just yesterday, when questioned about a possible Microsoft alliance, Yahoo CEO Carol Bartz confirmed ongoing Microsoft-Yahoo talks and stated, “if there’s boatloads of money, and there’s the right technology, and the information we would have to have, then yeah… it’s that simple.” Of course, there is also speculation that Microsoft is interested in various other potential acquisitions as well.

So what does Bing promise to bring? Well, that remains to be seen. In the meantime, we’ll see if Microsoft can first push Bing.com’s traffic past that received by bingo.com or even bingcrosby.com, each currently receiving considerably more traffic than Microsoft’s new proposed venture (view stats). To date, Microsoft’s search platforms failed to achieve wide public appeal, with Google basically controlling the market. Microsoft is desperately trying to challenge Google’s dominance. Is Bing the answer? And will Yahoo somehow be part of it? Internet history and the search marketing landscape continues to evolve and develop before our very eyes.

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Yahoo chose its new CEO, Silicon Valley veteran Carol Bartz (view Carol’s resume at Autodesk.com). Yahoo lured Bartz, 60, from Autodesk Inc., which specializes in making design software for architects and engineers. Bartz was CEO from 1992 through 2006, when she became executive chairman. Autodesk is just about half the size of Yahoo, with approximately 7,000 employees worldwide.

Bartz is also on the board of directors for Cisco Systems Inc. with Jerry Yang and is also a member of the Intel Corp. board with Yahoo President Susan Decker, who also interviewed for the CEO position. In fact, Yahoo announced that Decker will resign after a transitional period. Wow, guess she’s angry.

Chairman Roy Bostock said Bartz “is the exact combination of seasoned technology executive and savvy leader that the board was looking for, and we are thrilled to have attracted such a world-class talent to Yahoo. She is admired in the Valley as well as on Wall Street for her deep management expertise, strong customer orientation, excellent people skills, and firm understanding of the challenges facing our industry.”

Bostock added that the board “thanks Sue (Decker) for her service as President, the important contributions she has made to Yahoo’s development in a variety of roles over the past 8 1/2 years, and her willingness to work with Carol Bartz to ensure a smooth transition. We respect her decision to move on to other challenges and wish her only the best.”

Bartz’s appointment already sparked renewed speculation of negotiations with Microsoft, who continues to proclaim they are very interested in Yahoo’s search division. Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer, who tried and failed to buy Yahoo last year, publicly said in the past few weeks that a search deal with Yahoo should be made when there is a management transition at both companies. Microsoft late last year hired a former Yahoo search executive to lead its Internet business.

Microsoft is feverishly working to prevent Google from getting 100% of all online search queries. If Google continues to gain market share as they have in the past, it won’t be much longer until they are there! Recent data from HitWise indicates that Google has once again increased their market share in the month of December.

At this point, one must wonder if Microsoft or Yahoo has a shot at competing with Google, together or on their own. Of course, at one point, AOL basically controlled the entire online population, so things certainly do change, and fast.

Investors did not react much to this news yesterday, but many discouraged Yahoo investors have likely already thrown in the towel at this point. Yahoo announces earnings on January 27th, so we’ll see if they have anything to say about Microsoft by then. It will also be interesting to see how PPC advertising is weathering the economic storm.

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Yahoo to Partner with Microsoft on Search? 

According to regulatory filings, Billionaire investor Carl Icahn increased his position in Yahoo by 6.78 million shares between November 24-26 (at about $10 per share), raising his total to 75.58 million shares (about 5.5% of the company). I saw a recent presentation he made where he stated that he continues to believe Yahoo shares are undervalued, but admits that he also thought they were undervalued when he was last purchasing shares near $25 per share. So far, he is down about $1 billion on his investment. Ouch! He is still looking for some type of partnership with Microsoft on their search efforts which he believes could help save Yahoo a great deal of money. While there are no alleged talks going on at this time, I suspect these two will eventually work out some type of agreement. With Yang stepping down and both Icahn and Microsoft’s Steve Ballmer expressing interest in a search deal getting done, I think something will eventually develop. I would also like to mention that I very much hope that Carl Icahn is a better investor than speaker because quite honestly, listening to him speak was a little painful. Sorry Carl, but it’s the truth.

Black Friday & Cyber Monday Both Posted Impressive Increases Year Over Year

Sales during Black Friday, the day after Thanksgiving, saw an increase of 3% over the prior year. Last year’s sales of $10.3 billion on Black Friday increased to $10.6 billion spent this year. Though this gain appears promising for the economy, many fear that the increase in sales was at the expense of profitability. And though spending was up on this day, it may still be down for the Holiday season. One Gallup Inc. poll suggests that spending on gifts will be down 29% from a year earlier. We’ll soon know for sure.  

Online shopping saw a more dramatic increase in sales. According to data released by ComScore Inc., online sales for Cyber Monday, the Internet’s equivalent to Black Friday, jumped 15% from a year ago as Internet sites lured millions of consumers with offers of free shipping and dramatically reduced prices. Online sales increased from $733 million on Cyber Monday in 2007 to $846 million this year. Forrester Research expects 12% year-over-year growth for online holiday sales, or $44 billion in this November and December.

The US Economy Searches For Stability 

The US Economy continues to look a bit frightening and unstable. However, some good things are also taking shape. Gasoline prices are the lowest they have been in years, with prices at about $1.70 per gallon here in Illinois. That’s a far cry from the $4+ getting charged just 6 months ago. Additionally, mortgage rates are dropping and refinancing is rapidly picking up, enabling homeowners to lock in lower rates and lower monthly payments. Though we are clearly not out of the woods yet, there does seem to be shared hope that the economy will stabilize and business will pick up by the end of 2009. I suspect it’s going to be an interesting year.

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